🔥 Most Traded Commodity Board
Fast read for the contracts most traders usually check first.
Safe haven
🥇 Gold
$4,099
-0.04%
RSI 14
59.4
1M
+1.88%
SMA50
N
SMA200
N
Watch real yields, DXY and central-bank buying first.
TradingView
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Energy
🛢️ WTI Crude
$86.80
+3.84%
Signal
Neutral
RSI 14
61.5
1M
+24.89%
3M
-9.93%
The key read is OPEC+ plus weekly inventory data.
TradingView
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Precious + industrial
🥈 Silver
$57.78
-1.77%
Signal
Sell
RSI 14
50.5
1M
-2.86%
G:S
70.9x
Best when gold and industrial demand both support the move.
TradingView
Open chart →
Energy
🔥 Natural Gas
$2.792
+1.23%
Signal
Neutral
RSI 14
42.0
1M
-14.75%
3M
+9.49%
Weather, storage and LNG feedgas move this market fast.
TradingView
Open chart →
Growth proxy
🔶 Copper
$6.508
+0.98%
Signal
Buy
RSI 14
63.2
1M
+5.09%
3M
+8.13%
China PMI, stimulus headlines and inventory draws matter most.
TradingView
Open chart →
Dollar proxy
💵 US Dollar Index Futures
99.80
-0.21%
VIX
16.0
10Y
0.47%
2s10s
+0.11%
Regime
STAGFLATION
Using ICE dollar index futures as the tradeable DXY proxy.
TradingView
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🗓️ What Traders Watch This Week
Macro
US CPI + real yields
Gold first
If CPI runs hot but real yields keep rising, gold can still fade.
Energy
EIA crude + gas storage
Oil / Nat Gas
WTI reacts to crude and product stocks. Natural gas reacts to storage vs expectations.
China
PMI + stimulus headlines
Copper and oil
Copper usually reads growth changes fastest when China data surprises.
Supply
OPEC+ or outage headlines
Oil spike risk
Cuts, sanctions or shipping disruption can move crude before inventories matter.
⚡ The 4 Master Signals
Check these four signals every morning before any trade decision.
Signals are for market screening, not investment advice. Confirm price action and use a stop loss.
DXY — US Dollar Index
99.80
-0.21% ↓
Master signal for all commodities. DXY falling = tailwind for Gold, Oil & EM.
VIX — Fear Index
16.0
Caution ⚠️
<15 calm. 15–20 caution. >25 reduce size. >35 crisis.
10Y Treasury Yield
0.47%
Check FRED: DGS10
Rising = tight money → pressure on Gold & equities.
2s10s Spread
+0.11% (Normal)
Recession predictor
Inverted = recession risk. Re-steepening from inversion → Recovery starts.
🧭 Current Market Regime
🟡 STAGFLATION
📦 Commodity Snapshot
$4,099
-0.04%
NEUTRAL
G:S Ratio
70.9x
Driver #1
Real Yields
Key Level
$3,000
Key Level 2
$2,070
Primary safe haven + inflation hedge. CB buying at record pace since 2022.
📊 TradingView Chart →
$86.80
+3.84%
BULLISH
Brent Spread
~$4
EIA Report
Wed 10:30 EST
OPEC Floor
~$70
Shale BEP
$45–55
Driver #1: OPEC+ policy. EIA inventory every Wed.
📊 TradingView Chart →
$90.12
+1.22%
BULLISH
Global share
70% contracts
vs WTI
$2–5 premium
OPEC ref
$75–85
Key level
$75
70% of global oil contracts use Brent.
📊 TradingView Chart →
$57.78
-1.77%
BEARISH
G:S Ratio
70.9x
Role
Safe haven + Industrial
Key level
$30 support
Driver
Gold + PMI
Dual role: safe haven + industrial. G:S above 80x = silver cheap vs gold.
📊 TradingView Chart →
$6.508
+0.98%
BULLISH
Nickname
Dr. Copper
Primary driver
China PMI
Best regime
Recovery
Key level
$4.00 floor
Best leading indicator of global economic growth.
📊 TradingView Chart →
$2.792
+1.23%
BULLISH
EIA Storage
Wed 10:30 EST
Peak season
Nov–Feb
Key level
$2.50 floor
Driver
Weather + LNG
Highly seasonal. LNG export capacity is new structural demand driver.
📊 TradingView Chart →
🔗 Intermarket Relationships
| If This Happens | Gold | Crude Oil | Silver | Copper |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY rises strongly | Headwind ↓ | Headwind ↓ | Headwind ↓ | Pressure ↓ |
| Real yields rise | Strong sell ↓↓ | Neutral | Headwind ↓ | Neutral |
| VIX spikes >30 | Rally ↑ (safe haven) | Falls ↓ (demand fear) | Mixed | Falls ↓ |
| China PMI >52 | Neutral | Rally ↑ | Rally ↑ | Strong ↑↑ |
| OPEC cuts 1mb/d | Neutral | Spike ↑↑ | Neutral | Neutral |
| Fed cuts rates | Very Bullish ↑↑ | Positive ↑ | Strong ↑↑ | Rally ↑ |
| US CPI surprises high | Mixed (rate fear) | Positive ↑ | Mixed | Neutral |
| Geopolitical crisis | Spike ↑↑ (temp.) | Spike ↑↑ (temp.) | Rally ↑ | Falls ↓ |
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD) — Live: $4,099 -0.04%
Gold Price Outlook: What traders want to know
Safe haven
Au Gold
$4,099
-0.04%
Signal
Neutral
RSI 14
59.4
1M
+1.88%
SMA50
N
Gold usually follows real yields and the US dollar first.
TradingView
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Macro
DX Dollar Index Futures
99.80
-0.21%
10Y
0.47%
VIX
16.0
2s10s
+0.11%
Regime
Current
Use ICE dollar index futures here because the DXY embed can fail in widgets.
TradingView
Open chart →
Relative value
Ag Silver
$57.78
-1.77%
Gold/Silver
70.9x
Signal
Sell
1M
-2.86%
3M
-22.97%
Silver often confirms whether the precious-metals move has enough breadth.
TradingView
Open chart →
Technical
Gold trade signal
Neutral
Check the daily trend only after weekly DXY and real yields agree.
Financial
Rates and dollar
Primary driver
Falling real yields and a softer dollar usually give the cleanest support.
Flows
ETF and central-bank demand
Structural bid
ETF inflows and official buying help gold hold pullbacks better.
Major news
Fed, CPI, payrolls
High impact
Gold usually reacts most when rate expectations change, not from CPI alone.
Gold Live Chart
Use daily trend for setup and weekly chart for major levels.
Free-widget chart proxy: AMEX:GLD
Dollar Index Futures
Tradeable DXY proxy. Gold usually likes a softer dollar.
Free-widget chart proxy: AMEX:UUP
📊 5 Key Drivers
| Rank | Driver | Direction for Gold | How to Track |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Interest Rates (TIPS) | Rising = Headwind ↓ | FRED: DFII10 |
| 2 | US Dollar (DXY) | DXY 99.80 — Tailwind ↑ | DXY weekly chart |
| 3 | Inflation Expectations | Neutral (2–3%) | FRED: T5YIFR, T10YIE |
| 4 | Geopolitical Risk | Support ↑ (temporary) | News flow — always use trailing stop |
| 5 | Central Bank Buying | Record pace since 2022 ↑↑ | World Gold Council monthly |
📐 Core Formula: Real Yield = 10Y − Inflation Expectation
Real yields FALLING → Gold RISES | Real yields RISING → Gold FALLS
📌 2020: QE drove real yields to −1% → Gold surged $1,500→$2,075 (+38%)
📌 2022 paradox: CPI at 40-year high BUT real yields went from −1% to +2% → Gold fell −21%
📌 2024: Rate cut expectations eased real yields → Gold broke to new ATH >$2,500
⚠️ Lesson: Driver 1 (real yields) ALWAYS beats Driver 3 (inflation). Never buy gold on CPI prints alone.
📌 2022 paradox: CPI at 40-year high BUT real yields went from −1% to +2% → Gold fell −21%
📌 2024: Rate cut expectations eased real yields → Gold broke to new ATH >$2,500
⚠️ Lesson: Driver 1 (real yields) ALWAYS beats Driver 3 (inflation). Never buy gold on CPI prints alone.
✅ 6-Step Gold Entry Framework
1
Are real yields (TIPS) falling? AND is DXY in a weekly downtrend? Both must align.
2
Identify the regime. Recession or Crisis = core long. Goldilocks = avoid. Stagflation = small size.
3
Clean technical setup? Close above resistance, or pullback to 50-day EMA. Confirm on two timeframes.
4
Enter on daily close. Never chase a mid-session spike.
5
Stop loss below the most recent structural swing low. Typical: 1.5–3% below entry.
6
Target at prior resistance. Minimum R:R = 2:1. If math doesn't work → skip.
🎯 Key Technical Levels
| Level | Significance | Watch For |
|---|---|---|
| $3,500+ | 2024–25 Extension Zone | Take profits, trail stop |
| $3,000 | Major psychological level | Key support on pullback |
| $2,500 | 2024 early ATH | Deeper pullback support |
| $2,070–2,080 | 2020 COVID high → now support | Strong support zone |
| $1,920 | 2011 ATH — decades of resistance | Long-term floor |
📋 Gold Fundamental Tracker — What to Watch Daily & Weekly
These are the data points that move gold. Check them on schedule to stay ahead of the market.
🏦 Central Bank Actions Event-driven
Fed Rate Decision (FOMC)
8× per year
Rate cut = Very Bullish ↑↑
ECB Rate Decision
6× per year
Easing = Bullish ↑
BOJ Policy Meeting
8× per year
Yield curve control shift = ↑↑
RBI Policy (India gold demand)
6× per year
Rate cut = demand ↑
PBOC Gold Reserves
Monthly disclosure
Buying = structural floor ↑
Fed Minutes / Dot Plot
8× per year
Dovish surprise = ↑
📊 Real Yields & Inflation Daily / Weekly
TIPS 10Y Real Yield (DFII10)
FRED — daily
Falling = Bullish ↑↑ (Driver #1)
10Y Treasury Yield (DGS10)
FRED — daily
Direction matters > level
US CPI (headline + core)
Monthly (BLS)
High CPI but yields flat = ↑
PCE Price Index
Monthly (BEA)
Fed's preferred measure
5Y5Y Breakeven (T5YIFR)
FRED — daily
Rising = inflation fear = mixed
University of Michigan Inflation Exp.
Monthly
Consumer expectations rising = ↑
💵 US Dollar & FX Daily
DXY (Dollar Index)
TradingView — daily
Falling = Tailwind ↑ (Driver #2)
EUR/USD
FX — daily
EUR rising = DXY falling = gold ↑
USD/JPY
FX — daily
Yen strengthening = risk-off = gold ↑
USD/CNY
FX — daily
Yuan devaluation = China gold buying ↑
USD/INR
FX — daily
Weak INR = higher domestic gold price
🌍 Geopolitical & Country Decisions Event-driven
US Sanctions (Russia/Iran/China)
News
Sanctions = de-dollarization = ↑↑
Middle East Tensions
News
War premium = temporary spike ↑
China-Taiwan Tensions
News
Risk-off bid = ↑↑
BRICS De-dollarization Moves
Summit events
Alternative reserve = structural ↑
US Debt Ceiling / Shutdown
Congress
US credit risk = safe haven ↑
Trade War / Tariffs
News
Uncertainty = ↑ (but DXY matters more)
📦 Physical Demand & Supply Weekly / Monthly
Gold ETF Holdings (GLD/IAU tonnes)
World Gold Council
Inflows = bullish ↑
COMEX Gold Inventories
CME — daily
Drawdown = physical demand ↑
Shanghai Gold Premium/Discount
SGE — daily
Premium = China demand ↑
India Gold Imports
Monthly (govt)
Festival season = demand ↑
Central Bank Net Purchases
WGC quarterly
Record buying since 2022 = floor ↑
Mine Production (global)
WGC quarterly
Supply constrained = ↑
Recycled Gold Supply
WGC quarterly
High recycling = price ceiling
📈 Positioning & Sentiment Weekly
CFTC COT Report (Gold Futures)
Fri 3:30 PM EST
Net long extreme = caution ⚠️
Gold ETF Fund Flows
Daily (Bloomberg)
Consistent inflows = ↑
Gold:Silver Ratio
Daily
Current: 70.9x — above 80 = silver cheap
Gold vs S&P 500 Ratio
Daily
Rising = risk-off regime
Gold Miners (GDX) vs Gold
Daily
GDX leading = bullish confirmation
📊 Gold — TradingView Chart
🔄 Gold in the 4 Market Regimes
| Regime | Gold Bias | Why | Trade Approach |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Goldilocks | Neutral / Slight Bearish | Real yields rising; equities outperform | Underweight. No strong position. |
| 🟡 Stagflation | Mixed ⚠️ | Inflation supports but rate hikes headwind | Small entries on deep pullbacks only |
| 🔴 Recession | Bullish ↑ | Real yields fall as Fed cuts; safe haven bid | Core long. Buy dips. Trail stop. |
| ⚡ Crisis | Very Bullish ↑↑ | Ultimate safe haven; CB liquidity rush | Strong long. Options for asymmetric upside. |
🛢️ WTI Crude Oil — Live: $86.80 +3.84% | Brent: $90.12
WTI Crude Outlook: What traders want to know
Energy benchmark
CL WTI Crude
$86.80
+3.84%
Signal
Neutral
RSI 14
61.5
1M
+24.89%
3M
-9.93%
WTI reacts first to OPEC+, EIA stocks and risk headlines.
TradingView
Open chart →
Global benchmark
BZ Brent Crude
$90.12
+1.22%
Signal
Neutral
RSI 14
57.6
1M
+23.59%
3M
-16.73%
Brent is the better read for global shipping and geopolitical risk.
TradingView
Open chart →
Energy cross-check
NG Natural Gas
$2.792
+1.23%
Signal
Neutral
RSI 14
42.0
1M
-14.75%
3M
+9.49%
Gas is not the same trade, but it helps show how fast the energy tape is moving.
TradingView
Open chart →
Technical
WTI trade signal
Neutral
Watch the inventory day reaction first. Breakout and reversal moves are both common.
Financial
Dollar and growth
Macro sensitive
A weaker dollar helps, but growth data and OPEC headlines usually matter more.
Supply
OPEC+ and outages
Price spike risk
Cuts, sanctions or shipping disruption can move oil before inventory data does.
Major news
EIA, OPEC, geopolitics
High impact
For crude, event risk is often higher than any one chart pattern.
WTI Crude
Front-month WTI futures for the main oil trade.
Free-widget chart proxy: AMEX:USO
Brent Crude
Brent helps confirm whether the move is local or global.
Free-widget chart proxy: AMEX:BNO
📊 5 Key Drivers
| Rank | Driver | Direction for Oil | Data Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OPEC+ Production Policy | Cuts Active → Bullish ↑ | OPEC MOMR (~10th of month) |
| 2 | US Shale Output | Stable → Neutral | Baker Hughes Rig Count (Fri 1PM EST) |
| 3 | China Demand | Caixin PMI Watch → Headwind risk | Caixin Mfg PMI (1st of month) |
| 4 | US Dollar (DXY) | DXY 99.80 — Tailwind ↑ | DXY weekly chart |
| 5 | Geopolitical Risk | Premium ↑ (temporary) | News — always use trailing stop |
📅 EIA Inventory Trading Setup — Every Wednesday 10:30 AM EST
| Scenario | Signal | Trade Setup |
|---|---|---|
| Crude Draw >3 million barrels | Bullish | Buy breakout above pre-report 15-min high |
| Crude Build >3 million barrels | Bearish | Sell breakdown below pre-report low |
| Within expected range (±2M) | Neutral | Fade the initial spike/drop |
| Gasoline draw + crude draw | Very Bullish | Strong momentum buy with wide stop |
| SPR release announced | Bearish override | Ignore inventory draw; sell |
🎯 Key WTI Price Levels
| Level | Significance | Action |
|---|---|---|
| $100+ | Demand destruction zone | Reduce longs; watch for reversal |
| $85–90 | OPEC tends to ease cuts here | Take profits; trail stop tightly |
| $65–70 | OPEC defense zone | Build long positions |
| $45–55 | US Shale breakeven — structural floor | Strong buy zone; shale shuts in |
📋 Crude Oil Fundamental Tracker — What to Watch Daily & Weekly
Oil is driven by supply/demand balance, OPEC decisions, and inventory data. Track these on schedule.
📦 Inventory & Storage Weekly
EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Wed 10:30 AM EST
Draw = Bullish ↑, Build = Bearish ↓
EIA Gasoline Inventories
Wed 10:30 AM EST
Draw = demand strong ↑
EIA Distillate Inventories
Wed 10:30 AM EST
Draw = industrial demand ↑
API Weekly Crude Stock
Tue 4:30 PM EST
API preview — often moves overnight
Cushing Oklahoma Hub Stocks
EIA — weekly
Low Cushing = WTI contango collapse ↑
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
EIA — monthly
SPR release = bearish override
Floating Storage (tankers)
Vortexa/Kpler
Rising = oversupply signal ↓
⛽ Supply & Production Weekly / Monthly
OPEC+ Production Quotas
OPEC MOMR (~10th)
Cuts = Bullish ↑↑ (Driver #1)
OPEC+ Compliance Rate
OPEC MOMR
High compliance = effective cuts ↑
US Crude Oil Production
EIA weekly
Rising = supply pressure ↓
Baker Hughes US Rig Count
Fri 1 PM EST
Rising rigs = future supply ↑ → bearish
Russia Seaborne Exports
Kpler/tanker trackers
Sanctions effectiveness check
Iran/Venezuela Output
Secondary sources
Sanctions relief = supply ↑ → bearish
Canadian Oil Sands Output
Monthly
TMX pipeline expansion = supply ↑
📈 Demand Indicators Monthly
China Crude Imports
China Customs (monthly)
Rising = global demand ↑↑
India Crude Imports
PPAC (monthly)
Rising = demand growth ↑
Caixin China Mfg PMI
1st of month
>52 = strong demand ↑
US Gasoline Demand (EIA)
Weekly
Summer driving season peak = ↑
Global Refinery Utilization
IEA monthly
High runs = strong demand ↑
Jet Fuel Demand (IATA)
Monthly
Air travel recovery = ↑
EV Adoption Rate
Quarterly reports
Long-term demand destruction risk ↓
🏦 Central Bank & Macro Event-driven
Fed Rate Decision
8× per year
Rate cut = weaker DXY = oil ↑
US GDP Growth
Quarterly (BEA)
Strong growth = demand ↑
US Jobs Report (NFP)
1st Fri of month
Strong jobs = demand ↑ but Fed hawkish
China Stimulus Announcements
PBOC/State Council
Stimulus = demand ↑↑
Saudi Aramco OSP Changes
Monthly
Price hike = confident demand outlook
🌍 Geopolitical & Country Decisions Event-driven
Middle East Tensions (Strait of Hormuz)
News
Shipping disruption = spike ↑↑
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
News
Sanctions/supply disruption = ↑
US Sanctions (Iran/Venezuela/Russia)
News
New sanctions = supply cut = ↑
Libya Production Disruptions
News
Frequent shutdowns = ↑ temporary
Nigeria/MENA Political Instability
News
Supply risk premium ↑
US-China Trade Relations
News
Trade war = demand fear ↓
OPEC+ Emergency Meetings
News
Surprise cuts = sharp ↑↑
📊 Positioning & Technicals Weekly
CFTC COT Report (WTI Futures)
Fri 3:30 PM EST
Net long extreme = reversal risk ⚠️
WTI-Brent Spread
Daily
Spread >$5 = US supply glut signal
Crude Oil Volatility (OVX)
Daily
OVX spike = trade smaller ⚠️
Contango vs Backwardation
Daily (futures curve)
Backwardation = bullish ↑
Crack Spread (3-2-1)
Daily
Widening = refiner demand ↑
Energy ETF Flows (XLE/USO)
Weekly
Inflows = bullish sentiment ↑
📊 Crude Oil — TradingView Charts
WTI Crude (CL1!)
Brent Crude (BZ1!)
🔄 Crude Oil in the 4 Regimes
| Regime | Oil Bias | Why | Approach |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Goldilocks | Neutral / Modest + | Growth supports demand; supply balanced | Range trade: buy support, sell resistance |
| 🟡 Stagflation | BULLISH — Best Regime ↑↑ | Hot economy + constrained supply | Max overweight; long XLE energy stocks |
| 🔴 Recession | Bearish ↓ | Demand destruction as economy slows | Underweight; short on bounces |
| ⚡ Supply Shock | Spike then Reversal ⚠️ | Supply disruption premium fades eventually | Trail stop aggressively; NEVER chase |
Silver Price (XAG/USD) — Live: $57.78 -1.77%
Precious + industrial
Ag Silver
$57.78
-1.77%
Signal
Sell
RSI 14
50.5
1M
-2.86%
3M
-22.97%
Silver moves best when both gold and industrial demand support the trend.
TradingView
Open chart →
Anchor market
Au Gold
$4,099
-0.04%
Signal
Neutral
Gold/Silver
70.9x
1M
+1.88%
3M
-12.34%
Gold direction still matters because silver usually follows the precious-metals trend.
TradingView
Open chart →
Macro filter
DX Dollar Index Futures
99.80
-0.21%
10Y
0.47%
VIX
16.0
2s10s
+0.11%
Ratio
70.9x
Silver usually trades better when the dollar cools and real rates stop rising.
TradingView
Open chart →
What silver traders want to know
Technical
Silver trade signal
Sell
Momentum improves when silver holds above support after a fast spike.
Financial
Gold/Silver ratio
70.9x
Above 80x usually means silver is cheap relative to gold. A falling ratio helps silver.
Industrial
Solar and electronics demand
Growth-sensitive
Silver gets extra upside when PMIs and manufacturing demand improve.
Major news
Fed, CPI, China PMI
High impact
Silver reacts to both macro rates news and growth data, so it can move harder than gold.
Silver key technical levels
| Level | Why it matters | Trade read |
|---|---|---|
| $35+ | Momentum breakout area | Trend extension if gold also confirms |
| $32 | Near-term trend support | Healthy pullback zone in an uptrend |
| $30 | Psychological level | Important line for bulls to defend |
| $26 | Macro support zone | Loss of this area weakens the medium-term trend |
Silver tracker: daily, weekly and major news
Macro and rates Daily / Monthly
DXY and US real yields
Daily
Falling = better for silver
US CPI and PCE
Monthly
Helps only when yields do not rise faster
Fed meeting and dot plot
8x per year
Dovish surprise = bullish
US payrolls
Monthly
Big rate-expectation shift can move silver fast
Industrial demand Monthly
China PMI
Start of month
Above 50 supports industrial demand
Solar demand headlines
News
New installations help the structural story
Electronics cycle
Quarterly reports
Recovery adds extra demand beta
ETF flows
Daily / Weekly
Inflow confirms broader participation
Positioning and market tone Weekly
CFTC COT report
Friday
Crowded long = pullback risk
Gold/Silver ratio
Daily
Falling ratio usually confirms silver strength
Gold lead-lag
Daily
Silver works better after gold already turns up
Volatility spikes
Daily
Trade smaller when silver gets noisy
Silver live charts
Gold
Use gold as the anchor chart for silver confirmation.
Free-widget chart proxy: AMEX:GLD
Silver in the 4 Market Regimes
| Regime | Silver bias | Why | Trade approach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldilocks | Neutral to bullish | Growth helps industrial demand, but gold may lag | Buy only when gold and PMIs both agree |
| Stagflation | Mixed | Inflation helps, but high real yields can cap upside | Trade smaller and avoid late breakouts |
| Recession | Mixed to bullish | Gold support helps, but industrial demand can soften | Prefer pullbacks over chasing spikes |
| Crisis | Bullish with volatility | Safe-haven demand can lift silver after gold leads | Wait for gold confirmation and keep wider stops |
Natural Gas Price (NG) — Live: $2.792 +1.23%
High volatility
NG Natural Gas
$2.792
+1.23%
Signal
Neutral
RSI 14
42.0
1M
-14.75%
3M
+9.49%
Natural gas moves fast on weather, storage and LNG feedgas.
TradingView
Open chart →
Energy context
CL WTI Crude
$86.80
+3.84%
Signal
Neutral
1M
+24.89%
3M
-9.93%
VIX
16.0
Oil is not the same market, but it helps read the wider energy tape.
TradingView
Open chart →
Macro filter
DX Dollar Index Futures
99.80
-0.21%
10Y
0.47%
2s10s
+0.11%
Season
Storage / Weather
Risk
Event-driven
Macro matters less here than weather and storage, but a strong dollar still affects the tape.
TradingView
Open chart →
What natural gas traders want to know
Technical
Nat gas trade signal
Neutral
This market punishes late entries. Respect gap risk and use smaller size.
Weather
Heating and cooling degree days
Primary driver
Weather model changes can move natural gas faster than most macro releases.
Financial
Storage and LNG flows
Must track
Storage versus expectations and LNG export demand are the key balance items.
Major news
EIA storage, hurricanes, LNG outages
High impact
One storage surprise or export outage can reset the whole weekly trend.
Natural gas key technical levels
| Level | Why it matters | Trade read |
|---|---|---|
| $5.00+ | Squeeze and panic zone | Chase risk goes up sharply above this area |
| $4.00 | Strong momentum level | Trend often accelerates if storage is tight |
| $3.00 | Important pivot area | Use as the main line between trend and range |
| $2.00 | Structural floor zone | Oversupply and warm weather usually sit behind this weakness |
Natural gas tracker: daily, weekly and major news
Weather and storage Daily / Weekly
NOAA and ECMWF model changes
Daily
Big temperature shifts move price fast
EIA storage report
Thursday
Miss versus estimate = biggest scheduled event
Storage vs 5-year average
Weekly
Below average supports price
Regional heat or freeze alerts
News
Short-term spike risk
LNG and exports Daily / Weekly
US LNG feedgas demand
Daily
Higher exports tighten domestic balance
Freeport / Gulf Coast outage headlines
News
Outage can hit price immediately
European gas stress
Daily
Global tightness can support US gas
Hurricane season disruptions
Seasonal
Can tighten or loosen supply depending on path
Supply and positioning Weekly
Dry gas production
Daily / Weekly
Higher output = bearish pressure
Rig count
Friday
Falling rigs help later supply balance
CFTC COT report
Friday
Crowded positioning increases reversal risk
Volatility regime
Daily
Trade smaller when intraday swings expand
Natural gas live charts
Natural Gas
Front-month NYMEX natural gas futures.
Free-widget chart proxy: AMEX:UNG
WTI Crude
Use only as an energy context chart, not as a direct nat-gas signal.
Free-widget chart proxy: AMEX:USO
Natural gas in the 4 Market Regimes
| Regime | Natural gas bias | Why | Trade approach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldilocks | Neutral | Demand is normal and weather usually matters more than macro | Trade the storage and weather setup, not the broad macro story |
| Stagflation | Bullish risk | Higher energy inflation can lift gas when supply is tight | Respect breakout risk but keep size controlled |
| Recession | Mixed to bearish | Industrial demand can slow, but weather can still override macro | Use shorter-term setups and take profits faster |
| Crisis | Very volatile | Supply outage or weather shock can create extreme spikes | Trade smaller and never ignore gap risk |
Copper Price (HG) — Live: $6.508 +0.98%
Growth proxy
Cu Copper
$6.508
+0.98%
Signal
Buy
RSI 14
63.2
1M
+5.09%
3M
+8.13%
Copper is one of the fastest ways to read global growth and China demand.
TradingView
Open chart →
Macro filter
DX Dollar Index Futures
99.80
-0.21%
10Y
0.47%
VIX
16.0
2s10s
+0.11%
Macro
China-led
Copper usually likes a softer dollar and improving risk appetite.
TradingView
Open chart →
Cyclical check
CL WTI Crude
$86.80
+3.84%
Signal
Neutral
1M
+24.89%
3M
-9.93%
China
PMI / Stimulus
Oil helps confirm whether the cyclical growth trade is broad or narrow.
TradingView
Open chart →
What copper traders want to know
Technical
Copper trade signal
Buy
Copper trends best when price and China headlines both move the same way.
Macro
China PMI and stimulus
Primary driver
China demand changes are usually the first thing copper traders look at.
Financial
Dollar and risk appetite
Important filter
A strong dollar can slow copper even when the long-term story stays positive.
Major news
China property, mine supply, inventories
High impact
Copper can reprice quickly on mine disruption or China stimulus headlines.
Copper key technical levels
| Level | Why it matters | Trade read |
|---|---|---|
| $5.00+ | Strong breakout zone | Needs clear China or supply support to hold |
| $4.60 | Momentum continuation area | Healthy trend if buyers defend this zone |
| $4.25 | Key swing support | Loss of this area weakens the trend quickly |
| $4.00 | Psychological and macro floor | Important line for medium-term bulls |
Copper tracker: daily, weekly and major news
China demand Daily / Monthly
China PMI
Start of month
Above 50 supports copper
China stimulus headlines
News
Infrastructure support is copper-positive
Property sector headlines
News
Weak property demand can hurt sentiment
Import data
Monthly
Better imports confirm real demand
Supply and inventories Weekly / Monthly
Mine disruption headlines
News
Supply loss can create fast upside
LME / COMEX inventory trend
Daily
Falling inventory supports price
Treatment charges and smelter news
Industry data
Tighter processing conditions can help copper
Scrap supply
Monthly
Higher scrap can soften rallies
Macro and positioning Daily / Weekly
DXY
Daily
Softer dollar helps the cyclical metals trade
10Y yield and financial conditions
Daily
Too-tight conditions can slow the move
CFTC COT report
Friday
Crowded longs increase pullback risk
Oil and EM risk tone
Daily
Broad cyclicals strength helps copper confirm
Copper live charts
Dollar Index Futures
Use this instead of the flaky DXY embed widget.
Free-widget chart proxy: AMEX:UUP
Copper in the 4 Market Regimes
| Regime | Copper bias | Why | Trade approach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldilocks | Bullish | Balanced growth and easier conditions usually help cyclicals | Best environment for trend-following longs |
| Stagflation | Mixed | Inflation may support commodities, but tighter policy hurts growth metals | Wait for China confirmation before adding risk |
| Recession | Bearish | Demand slows and risk appetite fades | Prefer rallies to fade unless China stimulus is strong |
| Crisis | Weak | Copper usually underperforms in hard risk-off phases | Reduce size and avoid forcing cyclical longs |
Key intermarket framework:
DXY ↑ → Commodities ↓ (inverse) |
Real Yields ↑ → Gold ↓ (FRED: DFII10) |
China PMI ↑ → Copper & Oil ↑ |
VIX ↑ → Gold ↑, Oil ↓ |
RS > 0 = outperforming Gold over that period.
🏆 Top 10 — Strongest RS vs Gold (55d)
| Rank | Ticker | Category | Exch | Signal | RS(55) | RS(22) | 1M | 3M | RSI | >SMA50 | >SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cocoa | Agriculture | ICE | Buy | +36.71 | +5.85 | +7.84 | +67.62 | 43.10 | Y | Y |
| 2 | Coffee | Agriculture | ICE | Neutral | +21.39 | -1.11 | +0.76 | +3.11 | 37.80 | Y | N |
| 3 | Heating Oil | Energy | NYMEX | Buy | +15.08 | +24.10 | +26.44 | +5.51 | 64.10 | Y | Y |
| 4 | Copper | Industrial Metals | COMEX | Buy | +14.52 | +3.15 | +5.09 | +8.13 | 63.20 | Y | Y |
| 5 | Corn | Agriculture | CBOT | Buy | +13.27 | +10.28 | +12.36 | +0.65 | 63.50 | Y | Y |
| 6 | Natural Gas | Energy | NYMEX | Neutral | +12.08 | -16.32 | -14.75 | +9.49 | 42.00 | N | N |
| 7 | Soybeans | Agriculture | CBOT | Buy | +11.75 | +4.44 | +6.40 | +0.93 | 46.00 | Y | Y |
| 8 | Sugar No.11 | Agriculture | ICE | Buy | +11.39 | +0.27 | +2.16 | +5.93 | 47.30 | Y | Y |
| 9 | Soybean Meal | Agriculture | CBOT | Buy | +10.01 | +3.37 | +5.32 | -3.86 | 54.20 | Y | Y |
| 10 | Wheat | Agriculture | CBOT | Buy | +9.49 | +7.83 | +9.86 | +2.65 | 53.10 | Y | Y |
📈 Outperforming Gold (RS55 Leaders)
| Rank | Ticker | Category | RS(55) | RS(22) | 1M | 3M | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cocoa | Agriculture | +36.71 | +5.85 | +7.84 | +67.62 | Buy |
| 2 | Coffee | Agriculture | +21.39 | -1.11 | +0.76 | +3.11 | Neutral |
| 3 | Heating Oil | Energy | +15.08 | +24.10 | +26.44 | +5.51 | Buy |
| 4 | Copper | Industrial Metals | +14.52 | +3.15 | +5.09 | +8.13 | Buy |
| 5 | Corn | Agriculture | +13.27 | +10.28 | +12.36 | +0.65 | Buy |
| 6 | Natural Gas | Energy | +12.08 | -16.32 | -14.75 | +9.49 | Neutral |
| 7 | Soybeans | Agriculture | +11.75 | +4.44 | +6.40 | +0.93 | Buy |
| 8 | Sugar No.11 | Agriculture | +11.39 | +0.27 | +2.16 | +5.93 | Buy |
| 9 | Soybean Meal | Agriculture | +10.01 | +3.37 | +5.32 | -3.86 | Buy |
| 10 | Wheat | Agriculture | +9.49 | +7.83 | +9.86 | +2.65 | Buy |
📉 Underperforming Gold (RS55 Laggards)
| Rank | Ticker | Category | RS(55) | RS(22) | 1M | 3M | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Silver | Precious Metals | -22.55 | -4.66 | -2.86 | -22.97 | Sell |
| 22 | Platinum | Precious Metals | -10.46 | +4.82 | +6.79 | -16.44 | Neutral |
| 21 | Orange Juice | Agriculture | -9.13 | -12.87 | -11.23 | +7.43 | Sell |
| 20 | Brent Crude Oil | Energy | -4.56 | +21.30 | +23.59 | -16.73 | Neutral |
| 19 | WTI Crude Oil | Energy | -3.05 | +22.59 | +24.89 | -9.93 | Neutral |
| 18 | RBOB Gasoline | Energy | -2.12 | +3.26 | +5.21 | -9.16 | Neutral |
| 17 | Palladium | Precious Metals | -1.83 | +4.53 | +6.50 | -13.51 | Neutral |
| 16 | Gold | Precious Metals | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.88 | -12.34 | Neutral |
| 15 | Soybean Oil | Agriculture | +0.29 | -1.39 | +0.46 | -7.21 | Neutral |
| 14 | Live Cattle | Livestock | +4.59 | -13.71 | -12.08 | -9.35 | Neutral |
📊 By Category
🥇 Precious Metals
| Rank | Ticker | Exch | Signal | RS(55) | RS(22) | 1M | 3M | RSI | >SMA50 | >SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold | COMEX | Neutral | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.88 | -12.34 | 59.40 | N | N |
| 2 | Palladium | NYMEX | Neutral | -1.83 | +4.53 | +6.50 | -13.51 | 54.50 | N | N |
| 3 | Platinum | NYMEX | Neutral | -10.46 | +4.82 | +6.79 | -16.44 | 58.90 | N | N |
| 4 | Silver | COMEX | Sell | -22.55 | -4.66 | -2.86 | -22.97 | 50.50 | N | N |
🛢️ Energy
| Rank | Ticker | Exch | Signal | RS(55) | RS(22) | 1M | 3M | RSI | >SMA50 | >SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heating Oil | NYMEX | Buy | +15.08 | +24.10 | +26.44 | +5.51 | 64.10 | Y | Y |
| 2 | Natural Gas | NYMEX | Neutral | +12.08 | -16.32 | -14.75 | +9.49 | 42.00 | N | N |
| 3 | RBOB Gasoline | NYMEX | Neutral | -2.12 | +3.26 | +5.21 | -9.16 | 50.30 | Y | Y |
| 4 | WTI Crude Oil | NYMEX | Neutral | -3.05 | +22.59 | +24.89 | -9.93 | 61.50 | Y | Y |
| 5 | Brent Crude Oil | ICE | Neutral | -4.56 | +21.30 | +23.59 | -16.73 | 57.60 | Y | Y |
🔶 Industrial Metals
| Rank | Ticker | Exch | Signal | RS(55) | RS(22) | 1M | 3M | RSI | >SMA50 | >SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Copper | COMEX | Buy | +14.52 | +3.15 | +5.09 | +8.13 | 63.20 | Y | Y |
🌾 Agriculture
| Rank | Ticker | Exch | Signal | RS(55) | RS(22) | 1M | 3M | RSI | >SMA50 | >SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cocoa | ICE | Buy | +36.71 | +5.85 | +7.84 | +67.62 | 43.10 | Y | Y |
| 2 | Coffee | ICE | Neutral | +21.39 | -1.11 | +0.76 | +3.11 | 37.80 | Y | N |
| 3 | Corn | CBOT | Buy | +13.27 | +10.28 | +12.36 | +0.65 | 63.50 | Y | Y |
| 4 | Soybeans | CBOT | Buy | +11.75 | +4.44 | +6.40 | +0.93 | 46.00 | Y | Y |
| 5 | Sugar No.11 | ICE | Buy | +11.39 | +0.27 | +2.16 | +5.93 | 47.30 | Y | Y |
| 6 | Soybean Meal | CBOT | Buy | +10.01 | +3.37 | +5.32 | -3.86 | 54.20 | Y | Y |
| 7 | Wheat | CBOT | Buy | +9.49 | +7.83 | +9.86 | +2.65 | 53.10 | Y | Y |
| 8 | Cotton No.2 | ICE | Buy | +7.36 | +10.36 | +12.43 | +5.00 | 54.90 | Y | Y |
| 9 | Soybean Oil | CBOT | Neutral | +0.29 | -1.39 | +0.46 | -7.21 | 27.50 | N | Y |
| 10 | Orange Juice | ICE | Sell | -9.13 | -12.87 | -11.23 | +7.43 | 58.70 | N | N |
🐄 Livestock
| Rank | Ticker | Exch | Signal | RS(55) | RS(22) | 1M | 3M | RSI | >SMA50 | >SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feeder Cattle | CME | Neutral | +7.07 | -7.59 | -5.85 | -7.37 | 39.00 | N | N |
| 2 | Lean Hogs | CME | Neutral | +6.31 | -11.86 | -10.20 | -10.25 | 31.70 | N | N |
| 3 | Live Cattle | CME | Neutral | +4.59 | -13.71 | -12.08 | -9.35 | 37.90 | N | N |
📋 All Commodities
| Rank | Ticker | Category | Exch | Signal | RS(55) | RS(22) | 1M | 3M | RSI | >SMA50 | >SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cocoa | Agriculture | ICE | Buy | +36.71 | +5.85 | +7.84 | +67.62 | 43.10 | Y | Y |
| 2 | Coffee | Agriculture | ICE | Neutral | +21.39 | -1.11 | +0.76 | +3.11 | 37.80 | Y | N |
| 3 | Heating Oil | Energy | NYMEX | Buy | +15.08 | +24.10 | +26.44 | +5.51 | 64.10 | Y | Y |
| 4 | Copper | Industrial Metals | COMEX | Buy | +14.52 | +3.15 | +5.09 | +8.13 | 63.20 | Y | Y |
| 5 | Corn | Agriculture | CBOT | Buy | +13.27 | +10.28 | +12.36 | +0.65 | 63.50 | Y | Y |
| 6 | Natural Gas | Energy | NYMEX | Neutral | +12.08 | -16.32 | -14.75 | +9.49 | 42.00 | N | N |
| 7 | Soybeans | Agriculture | CBOT | Buy | +11.75 | +4.44 | +6.40 | +0.93 | 46.00 | Y | Y |
| 8 | Sugar No.11 | Agriculture | ICE | Buy | +11.39 | +0.27 | +2.16 | +5.93 | 47.30 | Y | Y |
| 9 | Soybean Meal | Agriculture | CBOT | Buy | +10.01 | +3.37 | +5.32 | -3.86 | 54.20 | Y | Y |
| 10 | Wheat | Agriculture | CBOT | Buy | +9.49 | +7.83 | +9.86 | +2.65 | 53.10 | Y | Y |
| 11 | Cotton No.2 | Agriculture | ICE | Buy | +7.36 | +10.36 | +12.43 | +5.00 | 54.90 | Y | Y |
| 12 | Feeder Cattle | Livestock | CME | Neutral | +7.07 | -7.59 | -5.85 | -7.37 | 39.00 | N | N |
| 13 | Lean Hogs | Livestock | CME | Neutral | +6.31 | -11.86 | -10.20 | -10.25 | 31.70 | N | N |
| 14 | Live Cattle | Livestock | CME | Neutral | +4.59 | -13.71 | -12.08 | -9.35 | 37.90 | N | N |
| 15 | Soybean Oil | Agriculture | CBOT | Neutral | +0.29 | -1.39 | +0.46 | -7.21 | 27.50 | N | Y |
| 16 | Gold | Precious Metals | COMEX | Neutral | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.88 | -12.34 | 59.40 | N | N |
| 17 | Palladium | Precious Metals | NYMEX | Neutral | -1.83 | +4.53 | +6.50 | -13.51 | 54.50 | N | N |
| 18 | RBOB Gasoline | Energy | NYMEX | Neutral | -2.12 | +3.26 | +5.21 | -9.16 | 50.30 | Y | Y |
| 19 | WTI Crude Oil | Energy | NYMEX | Neutral | -3.05 | +22.59 | +24.89 | -9.93 | 61.50 | Y | Y |
| 20 | Brent Crude Oil | Energy | ICE | Neutral | -4.56 | +21.30 | +23.59 | -16.73 | 57.60 | Y | Y |
| 21 | Orange Juice | Agriculture | ICE | Sell | -9.13 | -12.87 | -11.23 | +7.43 | 58.70 | N | N |
| 22 | Platinum | Precious Metals | NYMEX | Neutral | -10.46 | +4.82 | +6.79 | -16.44 | 58.90 | N | N |
| 23 | Silver | Precious Metals | COMEX | Sell | -22.55 | -4.66 | -2.86 | -22.97 | 50.50 | N | N |
Commodity ETFs ranked by RS vs GLD (Gold ETF) benchmark.
Period
Commodities
Gold ✓
Heating Oil ✓
Lumber ✓
Coffee ✓
Soybeans ✓
Steel ✓
Copper ✓
Agriculture Broad ✓
Gasoline ✓
Metals Broad ✓
Sugar ✓
Energy Broad ✓
Wheat ✓
Corn ✓
Broad Commodities ✓
Natural Gas ✓
Iron Ore ✓
Coal/Mining ✓
Crude Oil WTI ✓
Crude Oil Brent ✓
Palladium ✓
Lithium ✓
Platinum ✓
Uranium ✓
Silver ✓
Rare Earth ✓
🥇 Precious Metals
| ETF | Signal | RS(55) | RS(22) | RS(120) | 1M | 3M | 6M | 12M | 1D | RSI | >SMA50 | >SMA200 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Gold | Benchmark | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.86 | -13.57 | -16.24 | +23.45 | -1.49 | 53.80 | ✗ | ✗ |
| Palladium | Palladium | Neutral | -0.51 | +4.31 | -8.07 | +5.21 | -13.05 | -31.18 | +7.13 | -2.60 | 53.50 | ✗ | ✗ |
| Platinum | Platinum | Neutral | -9.74 | +4.97 | -4.13 | +5.87 | -16.88 | -33.89 | +25.97 | -0.47 | 56.70 | ✗ | ✗ |
| Silver | Silver | Sell | -22.33 | -2.91 | -8.55 | -2.08 | -23.37 | -37.64 | +56.25 | -2.13 | 50.70 | ✗ | ✗ |
🛢️ Energy
| ETF | Signal | RS(55) | RS(22) | RS(120) | 1M | 3M | 6M | 12M | 1D | RSI | >SMA50 | >SMA200 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heating Oil | Heating Oil | Buy | +49.40 | +30.21 | +94.66 | +31.33 | +49.04 | +85.96 | +118.49 | -1.05 | 72.80 | ✓ | ✓ |
| Gasoline | Gasoline | Buy | +12.02 | +13.56 | +108.24 | +14.54 | +5.71 | +76.82 | +79.49 | -0.01 | 60.60 | ✓ | ✓ |
| Natural Gas | Natural Gas | Neutral | +7.44 | -14.89 | -7.07 | -14.16 | -4.10 | -26.25 | -24.64 | +0.50 | 42.30 | ✗ | ✗ |
| Coal/Mining | Coal/Mining | Buy | +4.91 | +0.85 | +23.35 | +1.72 | -3.44 | +2.52 | +57.06 | -0.69 | 62.00 | ✗ | ✓ |
| Crude Oil WTI | Crude Oil WTI | Buy | +4.31 | +20.32 | +105.67 | +21.35 | -4.12 | +76.12 | +59.39 | +1.33 | 59.90 | ✓ | ✓ |
| Crude Oil Brent | Crude Oil Brent | Buy | +3.19 | +22.76 | +92.88 | +23.81 | -5.94 | +65.67 | +55.59 | +1.45 | 60.40 | ✓ | ✓ |
| Uranium | Uranium | Sell | -16.24 | -11.36 | -8.18 | -10.59 | -31.09 | -30.42 | +2.11 | -1.64 | 43.90 | ✗ | ✗ |
🌾 Agriculture
| ETF | Signal | RS(55) | RS(22) | RS(120) | 1M | 3M | 6M | 12M | 1D | RSI | >SMA50 | >SMA200 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lumber | Lumber | Buy | +25.87 | +5.72 | +16.99 | +6.63 | +7.13 | -1.38 | +0.66 | -0.75 | 70.90 | ✓ | ✓ |
| Coffee | Coffee | Neutral | +23.93 | -0.10 | +29.61 | +0.76 | +3.11 | -9.77 | +6.87 | -2.94 | 37.80 | ✓ | ✗ |
| Soybeans | Soybeans | Buy | +15.83 | +2.24 | +34.04 | +3.11 | +2.03 | +13.54 | +17.85 | -0.08 | 47.10 | ✓ | ✓ |
| Sugar | Sugar | Neutral | +11.32 | -2.57 | +28.60 | -1.74 | +2.45 | +0.52 | -11.99 | +0.94 | 44.20 | ✗ | ✗ |
| Wheat | Wheat | Buy | +8.84 | +7.16 | +41.00 | +8.08 | +0.42 | +18.75 | +9.22 | -3.29 | 51.40 | ✓ | ✓ |
| Corn | Corn | Buy | +8.64 | +4.48 | +23.64 | +5.37 | -4.65 | +2.92 | +2.32 | -0.62 | 52.30 | ✓ | ✗ |
🔶 Base Metals
| ETF | Signal | RS(55) | RS(22) | RS(120) | 1M | 3M | 6M | 12M | 1D | RSI | >SMA50 | >SMA200 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steel | Steel | Buy | +14.10 | +6.27 | +31.62 | +7.18 | +3.73 | +12.89 | +53.75 | -0.89 | 70.10 | ✓ | ✓ |
| Copper | Copper | Buy | +13.99 | +3.96 | +33.82 | +4.85 | +7.12 | +10.87 | +40.08 | +0.56 | 62.50 | ✓ | ✓ |
| Iron Ore | Iron Ore | Buy | +4.91 | +0.85 | +23.35 | +1.72 | -3.44 | +2.52 | +57.06 | -0.69 | 62.00 | ✗ | ✓ |
| Lithium | Lithium | Sell | -9.46 | -12.33 | +19.88 | -11.57 | -18.17 | -4.15 | +66.01 | -0.85 | 46.80 | ✗ | ✗ |
| Rare Earth | Rare Earth | Sell | -28.84 | -26.09 | -6.65 | -25.46 | -34.65 | -28.94 | +32.89 | -0.72 | 30.50 | ✗ | ✗ |
📦 Broad
| ETF | Signal | RS(55) | RS(22) | RS(120) | 1M | 3M | 6M | 12M | 1D | RSI | >SMA50 | >SMA200 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture Broad | Agriculture Broad | Buy | +12.20 | +2.27 | +30.86 | +3.15 | -0.22 | +7.67 | +9.79 | +0.11 | 46.10 | ✓ | ✓ |
| Metals Broad | Metals Broad | Buy | +11.77 | +3.51 | +29.37 | +4.40 | +0.28 | +5.94 | +33.57 | +0.48 | 68.10 | ✓ | ✓ |
| Energy Broad | Energy Broad | Buy | +9.48 | +18.13 | +97.50 | +19.15 | +0.58 | +66.79 | +61.98 | +1.13 | 60.50 | ✓ | ✓ |
| Broad Commodities | Broad Commodities | Buy | +8.20 | +9.64 | +50.96 | +10.58 | -2.17 | +24.72 | +35.12 | +0.34 | 60.20 | ✓ | ✓ |
🧭 5-Checkpoint Regime Scorecard
Run this every morning. 4/5 majority = regime confirmed. Today: 🟡 STAGFLATION
| Checkpoint | Goldilocks | Stagflation | Recession | Recovery | Today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 10Y Yield | Rising slowly | Rising fast | Falling sharply | Rising from trough | 0.47% |
| 2. VIX Level | <15 | 15–20 | >30 | 15–20 falling | 16.0 — Caution ⚠️ |
| 3. DXY Weekly | Ranging/mild | Rising | Surging | Falling | 99.80 |
| 4. 2s10s Spread | +0.5% to +2% | Flat/inverting | Inverted | Steepening | +0.11% (Normal) |
| 5. Global PMI | >52 rising | 50–53 high CPI | <48 falling | Crossing 50 ↑ | Manual check |
💼 Portfolio Allocation by Regime
| Regime | Equities | Bonds | Gold | Oil/Commod. | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Goldilocks | 70–80% | 5–10% | Underweight | 5–10% | 5% |
| 🟡 Stagflation | 30–40% | Short (TBT) | Small only | 20–30% (XLE) | 10–15% |
| 🔴 Recession | 15–20% | 40–50% (TLT) | 10–15% | Underweight | 15–20% |
| 🔵 Recovery | 50–60% | 5–10% | Neutral | 15–20% | 10% |
📡 Key FRED Data Sources
| Data Point | FRED Code | What it Tells You |
|---|---|---|
| Real Yield (TIPS 10Y) | DFII10 | #1 gold driver — inverse. Below 0% = very bullish gold. |
| 10Y Treasury Yield | DGS10 | Master rate for all assets. |
| 2s10s Spread | T10Y2Y | Recession predictor — inverted = warning 6–18 months ahead. |
| Inflation Breakeven 10Y | T10YIE | Market's inflation expectation. |
| 5Y5Y Forward Breakeven | T5YIFR | Long-term inflation expectations — Fed watches this. |
| HY Credit Spreads | BAMLH0A0HYM2 | Credit stress early warning — 2–6 week lead on equities. |
📊 Key Weekly Calendar — Commodity Movers
| Day | Time (EST) | Event | Impacts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | — | Weekend gap analysis; China data releases | All commodities |
| Tuesday | 4:30 PM | API Weekly Crude Stock Report | 🛢️ WTI/Brent (overnight preview) |
| Wednesday | 10:30 AM | EIA Petroleum Status Report | 🛢️ WTI/Brent (main inventory report) |
| Wednesday | 10:30 AM | EIA Natural Gas Storage | 🔥 Natural Gas |
| Thursday | 8:30 AM | US Jobless Claims | All (economy health proxy) |
| Friday | 1:00 PM | Baker Hughes US Rig Count | 🛢️ WTI (future supply signal) |
| Friday | 3:30 PM | CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) | 🥇 Gold, 🛢️ Oil (positioning) |
| 1st of month | — | Caixin China Manufacturing PMI | 🔶 Copper, 🛢️ Oil (demand signal) |
| 1st Fri | 8:30 AM | US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) | All (DXY reaction) |
| ~10th | — | OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) | 🛢️ WTI/Brent (supply forecast) |
| ~12th | 8:30 AM | US CPI Report | 🥇 Gold (inflation vs real yields) |
| ~15th | — | IEA Oil Market Report | 🛢️ Oil (demand/supply forecast) |
Commodity Chart Wall
Large TradingView charts for the contracts most traders usually monitor together. DXY uses ICE dollar index futures here because the direct DXY widget can fail in embeds.
Gold
Safe-haven anchor and the benchmark for precious metals.
Free-widget chart proxy: AMEX:GLD
Silver
Higher-beta precious metal with industrial demand support.
Free-widget chart proxy: AMEX:SLV
Natural Gas
High-volatility weather and storage market.
Free-widget chart proxy: AMEX:UNG
Copper
Front-month COMEX copper futures for the growth trade.
Free-widget chart proxy: AMEX:CPER
Dollar Index Futures
Tradeable DXY proxy for macro context.
Free-widget chart proxy: AMEX:UUP
World commodities
World commodity prices, charts and relative strength
Track live benchmarks across gold, crude oil, Brent, silver, copper, natural gas and agriculture in one place.
The page combines commodity prices, macro drivers, RS rankings and ETF rotation so users can move from search intent to trade context quickly.
gold pricecrude oil pricebrent oil pricesilver pricenatural gas pricecopper pricewheat price
Precious metals
Gold, silver, platinum and palladium for inflation, real-yield and safe-haven tracking.
Energy
WTI, Brent and natural gas for OPEC policy, inventories, seasonality and demand shocks.
Industrial metals
Copper and related materials for China PMI, manufacturing strength and global growth signals.
Agriculture and livestock
Wheat, corn, soybeans, cocoa, coffee and cattle for weather, crop and supply-chain moves.
How to use this page
- Check the market regime.
- Find the strongest commodities.
- Confirm the chart, entry, stop loss and risk.
Data updates daily. Check the timestamp before using any signal.
What moves gold prices the most?
Gold usually reacts first to real yields, the US dollar and central-bank buying. High CPI alone matters less when real yields are rising.
What is the difference between WTI and Brent crude?
WTI is the main US crude benchmark. Brent is the global seaborne benchmark used in a large share of international oil contracts.
Why do traders watch copper so closely?
Copper is a fast growth proxy. Strong China PMI and improving industrial demand usually help copper before many other cyclical assets.
Why is natural gas more volatile than many other commodities?
Natural gas moves quickly because weather, storage data, LNG flows and seasonality can change the supply-demand picture in a short time.