🛢️ Commodities Research Terminal
Gold · Crude Oil · Silver · Copper · Natural Gas — Live macro drivers, regime analysis & intermarket signals · Module 4
Gold $4,173 -1.21%
WTI $76.54 -0.08%
DXY 100.85
VIX 16.4
10Y 0.45%
Regime 🟡 STAGFLATION
ETF Buys 12
Updated: 2026-06-21 10:33 UTC
⚡ The 4 Master Signals
Check these four signals every morning before any trade decision. They determine the direction of all commodity markets.
DXY — US Dollar Index
100.85
+0.76% ↑
Master signal for all commodities. DXY falling = tailwind for Gold, Oil & EM. Below 100 = commodity tailwind. Above 108 = headwind.
VIX — Fear Index
16.4
Caution ⚠️
<15 = calm risk-on. 15–20 = caution. >25 = reduce size. >35 = crisis — raise cash & buy Gold.
10Y Treasury Yield
0.45%
Check FRED: DGS10
Master rate for all assets. Rising = tight money → pressure on Gold & equities. Above 4.5% = historically tight.
2s10s Spread
+0.08% (Normal)
Recession predictor
Inverted = recession risk ahead. When curve re-steepens from inversion → Recovery starts. Watch direction, not just level.
🧭 Current Market Regime
🟡 STAGFLATION
VIX: 16.4  |  10Y: 0.45%  |  DXY: 100.85  |  2s10s: +0.08% (Normal)
Auto rule-based · 2026-06-21 10:33 UTC
📦 Commodity Snapshot
🥇
Gold (XAU/USD)
COMEX · GC=F · MCX India
$4,173
-1.21%
BEARISH
G:S Ratio
64.3x
Driver #1
Real Yields
Key Level
$3,000
Key Level 2
$2,070
Primary safe haven + inflation hedge. Driver #1: Real Yields (TIPS). DXY falling = tailwind. CB buying at record pace since 2022.
📊 TradingView Chart →
🛢️
WTI Crude Oil
NYMEX · CL=F · MCX India
$76.54
-0.08%
NEUTRAL
Brent Spread
~$4 (normal)
EIA Report
Wed 10:30 EST
OPEC Floor
~$70
Shale BEP
$45–55
Driver #1: OPEC+ policy. EIA inventory report every Wed 10:30 AM EST. China PMI key demand signal. Shale at $45–55 = structural floor.
📊 TradingView Chart →
⚫
Brent Crude
ICE · BZ=F · 70% global contracts
$80.59
+0.93%
BULLISH
Global share
70% contracts
vs WTI
$2–5 premium normal
OPEC ref
$75–85
Key level
$75
70% of global oil contracts use Brent. Normal WTI-Brent spread = $2–5. Wide spread = US supply glut or export bottleneck.
📊 TradingView Chart →
🥈
Silver (XAG/USD)
COMEX · SI=F · MCX India
$64.91
-2.03%
BEARISH
G:S Ratio
64.3x
Role
Safe haven + Industrial
Key level
$30 support
Driver
Gold + PMI
Dual role: safe haven (follows Gold) + industrial metal (follows Copper). G:S ratio above 80x = silver historically cheap vs gold.
📊 TradingView Chart →
🔶
Copper (HG)
COMEX · HG=F · Dr. Copper
$6.337
-0.59%
BEARISH
Nickname
Dr. Copper
Primary driver
China PMI
Best regime
Recovery
Key level
$4.00 floor
Best leading indicator of global economic growth. Copper rising = world economy expanding. Watch China Caixin PMI monthly.
📊 TradingView Chart →
🔥
Natural Gas (NG)
NYMEX · NG=F · Henry Hub
$3.198
-1.08%
BEARISH
EIA Storage
Wed 10:30 EST
Peak season
Nov–Feb
Key level
$2.50 floor
Driver
Weather + LNG
Highly seasonal. Demand peaks in winter (heating) and summer (cooling). LNG export capacity is the new structural demand driver.
📊 TradingView Chart →
🔗 Intermarket Relationships
If This HappensGoldCrude OilSilverCopper
DXY rises stronglyHeadwind ↓Headwind ↓Headwind ↓Pressure ↓
Real yields riseStrong sell ↓↓NeutralHeadwind ↓Neutral
VIX spikes >30Rally ↑ (safe haven)Falls ↓ (demand fear)MixedFalls ↓
China PMI >52NeutralRally ↑Rally ↑Strong ↑↑
OPEC cuts 1mb/dNeutralSpike ↑↑NeutralNeutral
Fed cuts ratesVery Bullish ↑↑Positive ↑Strong ↑↑Rally ↑
US CPI surprises highMixed (rate fear)Positive ↑MixedNeutral
Geopolitical crisisSpike ↑↑ (temp.)Spike ↑↑ (temp.)Rally ↑Falls ↓
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD) — Live: $4,173 -1.21%
RankDriverDirection for GoldHow to Track
1Real Interest Rates (TIPS)Rising = Headwind ↓FRED: DFII10
2US Dollar (DXY)DXY 100.85 — Headwind ↓DXY weekly chart
3Inflation ExpectationsNeutral (2–3%)FRED: T5YIFR, T10YIE
4Geopolitical RiskSupport ↑ (temporary)News flow — always use trailing stop
5Central Bank BuyingRecord pace since 2022 ↑↑World Gold Council monthly
📐 Core Formula: Real Yield = 10Y − Inflation Expectation
Real yields FALLING → Gold RISES  |  Real yields RISING → Gold FALLS
📌 2020: QE drove real yields to −1% → Gold surged $1,500→$2,075 (+38% in 8 months)
📌 2022 paradox: CPI was 40-year high BUT real yields went from −1% to +2% → Gold fell −21%
📌 2024: Rate cut expectations eased real yields → Gold broke to new ATH >$2,500
⚠️ Lesson: Driver 1 (real yields) ALWAYS beats Driver 3 (inflation). Never buy gold on CPI prints alone.
🔄 Gold in the 4 Market Regimes
RegimeGold BiasWhyTrade Approach
🟢 GoldilocksNeutral / Slight BearishReal yields rising moderately; equities outperformUnderweight. No strong position.
🟡 StagflationMixed ⚠️Inflation supports but rate hikes headwindSmall entries on deep pullbacks only
🔴 RecessionBullish ↑Real yields fall as Fed cuts; safe haven bidCore long. Buy dips. Trail stop.
⚡ CrisisVery Bullish ↑↑Ultimate safe haven; CB liquidity rushStrong long. Options for asymmetric upside.
✅ 6-Step Gold Entry Framework
1
Are real yields (TIPS) falling? AND is DXY in a weekly downtrend? Both must align for high-confidence entry.
2
Identify the regime. Recession or Crisis = core long. Goldilocks = avoid. Stagflation = small size only.
3
Clean technical setup? Close above resistance, or pullback to 50-day EMA in established uptrend. Confirm on two timeframes.
4
Enter on daily close. Never chase a mid-session spike — wait for the daily candle close.
5
Stop loss below the most recent structural swing low. Typical: 1.5–3% below entry.
6
Target at prior resistance. Minimum R:R = 2:1. If math doesn't work → skip the trade.
🎯 Key Technical Levels — Gold
LevelSignificanceWatch For
$3,500+2024–25 Extension ZoneTake profits, trail stop
$3,000Major psychological levelKey support on pullback
$2,5002024 early ATHDeeper pullback support
$2,070–2,0802020 COVID high → now supportStrong support zone
$1,9202011 ATH — decades of resistanceLong-term floor
🛢️ WTI Crude Oil — Live: $76.54 -0.08%  |  Brent: $80.59
RankDriverDirection for OilData Source
1OPEC+ Production PolicyCuts Active → Bullish ↑OPEC MOMR (~10th of month)
2US Shale OutputStable → NeutralBaker Hughes Rig Count (Fri 1PM EST)
3China DemandCaixin PMI Watch → Headwind riskCaixin Mfg PMI (1st of month)
4US Dollar (DXY)DXY 100.85 — Headwind ↓DXY weekly chart
5Geopolitical RiskPremium ↑ (temporary)News — always use trailing stop
📅 EIA Inventory Trading Setup — Every Wednesday 10:30 AM EST
ScenarioSignalTrade Setup
Crude Draw >3 million barrelsBullishBuy breakout above pre-report 15-min high
Crude Build >3 million barrelsBearishSell breakdown below pre-report low
Within expected range (±2M)NeutralFade the initial spike/drop
Gasoline draw + crude drawVery BullishStrong momentum buy with wide stop
SPR release announcedBearish overrideIgnore inventory draw; sell
🔄 Crude Oil in the 4 Regimes
RegimeOil BiasWhyApproach
🟢 GoldilocksNeutral / Modest +Growth supports demand; supply balancedRange trade: buy support, sell resistance
🟡 StagflationBULLISH — Best Regime ↑↑Hot economy + constrained supplyMax overweight; long XLE energy stocks
🔴 RecessionBearish ↓Demand destruction as economy slowsUnderweight; short on bounces
⚡ Supply ShockSpike then Reversal ⚠️Supply disruption premium fades eventuallyTrail stop aggressively; NEVER chase
🎯 Key WTI Price Levels
LevelSignificanceAction
$100+Demand destruction zoneReduce longs; watch for reversal
$85–90OPEC tends to ease cuts hereTake profits; trail stop tightly
$65–70OPEC defense zoneBuild long positions
$45–55US Shale breakeven — structural floorStrong buy zone; shale shuts in
🧭 5-Checkpoint Regime Scorecard
Run this every morning. 4/5 or 5/5 majority = regime confirmed. Today's auto-reading: 🟡 STAGFLATION
CheckpointGoldilocksStagflationRecessionRecoveryToday's Reading
1. 10Y YieldRising slowlyRising fastFalling sharplyRising from trough0.45%
2. VIX Level<1515–20>3015–20 falling16.4 — Caution ⚠️
3. DXY WeeklyRanging/mildRisingSurgingFalling100.85
4. 2s10s Spread+0.5% to +2%Flat/invertingInverted then steepeningSteepening from inversion+0.08% (Normal)
5. Global PMI>52 and rising50–53 high CPI<48 and fallingCrossing 50 upwardManual — check monthly
💼 Portfolio Allocation by Regime
RegimeEquitiesBondsGoldOil/Commod.Cash
🟢 Goldilocks70–80%5–10%Underweight5–10%5%
🟡 Stagflation30–40%Short (TBT)Small only20–30% (XLE)10–15%
🔴 Recession15–20%40–50% (TLT)10–15%Underweight15–20%
🔵 Recovery50–60%5–10%Neutral15–20%10%
📡 Key FRED Data Sources
Data PointFRED CodeWhat it Tells You
Real Yield (TIPS 10Y)DFII10#1 gold driver — inverse relationship. Below 0% = very bullish gold.
10Y Treasury YieldDGS10Master rate for all assets. Direction matters more than level.
2s10s SpreadT10Y2YRecession predictor — inverted = warning 6–18 months ahead.
Inflation Breakeven 10YT10YIEMarket's inflation expectation. Real Yield = DGS10 − T10YIE.
5Y5Y Forward BreakevenT5YIFRLong-term inflation expectations — Fed watches this closely.
HY Credit SpreadsBAMLH0A0HYM2Credit stress early warning — 2–6 week lead on equities.

Commodity ETF performance ranked by relative strength vs GLD. Use the period buttons to compare across timeframes. Click any ticker to open TradingView chart.

Period
Commodities
Gold ✓
Steel ✓
Copper ✓
Iron Ore ✓
Coal/Mining ✓
Lithium ✓
Rare Earth ✓
Metals Broad ✓
Heating Oil ✓
Natural Gas ✓
Gasoline ✓
Uranium ✓
Lumber ✓
Agriculture Broad ✓
Wheat ✓
Soybeans ✓
Broad Commodities ✓
Energy Broad ✓
Corn ✓
Crude Oil WTI ✓
Silver ✓
Sugar ✓
Platinum ✓
Palladium ✓
Coffee ✓
Crude Oil Brent ✓
All Commodity ETFs — RS vs GLD
🥇 Precious Metals
Rank Commodity ETF Signal RS_55d% RS_22d% RS_120d% 1M% 3M% 6M% 12M% Chg_1D% RSI_14 Abv_SMA50 Abv_SMA200
★ Gold GLD Benchmark 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -7.48% -15.92% +0.44% +24.10% -0.38% 32.6 ✗ ✗
21 Silver SLV Sell -2.93% -8.03% -2.91% -14.91% -18.72% +12.90% +76.38% -1.81% 30.5 ✗ ✗
23 Platinum PPLT Sell -4.15% -6.88% -20.03% -13.85% -19.93% +2.51% +33.19% -1.91% 31.6 ✗ ✗
24 Palladium PALL Sell -4.16% -1.80% -21.03% -9.15% -20.52% -13.27% +21.25% -2.02% 40.5 ✗ ✗
🔶 Base Metals
Rank Commodity ETF Signal RS_55d% RS_22d% RS_120d% 1M% 3M% 6M% 12M% Chg_1D% RSI_14 Abv_SMA50 Abv_SMA200
2 Steel SLX Buy +27.54% +7.70% +31.16% -0.36% +17.54% +31.55% +64.74% -2.12% 38.9 ✗ ✓
3 Copper CPER Buy +25.45% +9.38% +20.91% +1.20% +8.88% +16.91% +29.71% +0.57% 50.0 ✓ ✓
4 Iron Ore PICK Buy +24.60% +9.41% +30.97% +1.23% +12.28% +31.81% +76.32% -1.83% 43.7 ✗ ✓
6 Lithium LIT Buy +22.81% +6.94% +30.63% -1.06% +14.70% +29.09% +125.74% -1.11% 39.5 ✗ ✓
7 Rare Earth REMX Buy +20.69% +9.07% +33.55% +0.91% +6.05% +32.54% +141.96% -0.51% 44.0 ✗ ✓
🛢️ Energy
Rank Commodity ETF Signal RS_55d% RS_22d% RS_120d% 1M% 3M% 6M% 12M% Chg_1D% RSI_14 Abv_SMA50 Abv_SMA200
5 Coal/Mining PICK Buy +24.60% +9.41% +30.97% +1.23% +12.28% +31.81% +76.32% -1.83% 43.7 ✗ ✓
9 Heating Oil DINO Neutral +15.71% -0.83% +50.61% -8.25% +14.77% +32.80% +60.58% -2.14% 36.0 ✗ ✓
10 Natural Gas UNG Buy +11.25% +9.96% +0.83% +1.73% -3.85% -22.10% -33.22% +1.47% 47.2 ✓ ✗
11 Gasoline UGA Neutral +10.02% -9.98% +72.31% -16.72% +6.69% +57.81% +56.05% +2.13% 43.0 ✗ ✓
12 Uranium URA Buy +9.66% +6.09% +14.41% -1.85% -4.34% +4.71% +33.28% +1.44% 43.4 ✗ ✗
20 Crude Oil WTI USO Neutral +0.34% -16.83% +74.12% -23.06% -0.14% +62.96% +39.57% +0.56% 35.6 ✗ ✓
26 Crude Oil Brent BNO Sell -6.22% -17.73% +62.63% -23.89% -7.93% +52.15% +33.94% +0.90% 30.9 ✗ ✓
📦 Broad
Rank Commodity ETF Signal RS_55d% RS_22d% RS_120d% 1M% 3M% 6M% 12M% Chg_1D% RSI_14 Abv_SMA50 Abv_SMA200
8 Metals Broad DBB Buy +19.67% +7.37% +20.24% -0.67% +4.94% +15.71% +38.53% +0.28% 41.3 ✗ ✓
14 Agriculture Broad DBA Buy +8.34% +2.07% +10.47% -5.57% +0.68% +4.51% +2.60% -0.78% 33.9 ✗ ✓
17 Broad Commodities PDBC Neutral +5.89% -4.73% +30.83% -11.86% -2.37% +24.93% +24.12% -0.24% 26.7 ✗ ✓
18 Energy Broad DBE Neutral +3.61% -11.31% +64.86% -17.95% -0.94% +51.18% +39.71% +0.26% 35.4 ✗ ✓
🌾 Agriculture
Rank Commodity ETF Signal RS_55d% RS_22d% RS_120d% 1M% 3M% 6M% 12M% Chg_1D% RSI_14 Abv_SMA50 Abv_SMA200
13 Lumber CUT Buy +8.51% +13.40% +3.13% +4.91% -2.58% -0.51% -3.43% +0.39% 55.1 ✓ ✗
15 Wheat WEAT Neutral +8.18% -0.82% +19.25% -8.24% +0.39% +10.93% -1.55% -1.12% 41.8 ✗ ✓
16 Soybeans SOYB Buy +7.88% +6.25% +17.50% -1.05% -1.29% +6.12% +9.20% +0.41% 25.9 ✗ ✓
19 Corn CORN Neutral +2.39% -2.24% -0.19% -9.55% -7.17% -4.99% -7.02% -1.17% 24.7 ✗ ✗
22 Sugar CANE Neutral -3.29% +2.22% +3.08% -4.81% -2.66% -0.73% -15.63% +0.74% 51.5 ✗ ✗
25 Coffee KC=F Neutral -4.59% +0.22% -21.05% -7.28% -13.99% -35.34% -21.18% -7.83% 43.8 ✗ ✗
🧮 Position Size Calculator
Position Size = (Capital × Risk%) ÷ Stop Distance. Risk 1–2% per trade — survival rule.
Total Capital (₹ or $)
Risk per Trade (%)
Stop Distance (price units, e.g. $/oz or $/bbl)
⚖️ Risk : Reward Calculator
Minimum acceptable R:R = 2:1. If math doesn't work, skip the trade — always.
Entry Price
Stop Loss Price
Target Price
📉 Drawdown Recovery Mathematics
Loss SufferedRecovery Required to Break EvenReality Check
5%5.3%Easy to recover
10%11.1%Achievable with discipline
20%25.0%Challenging — many months
30%42.9%Difficult — major rebuild
50%100.0%Account must DOUBLE to break even
75%300.0%Effectively destroyed. Avoid at all costs.
📋 11-Step Professional Trade Workflow
1
Global Macro Check: DXY direction, 10Y yield, VIX, Fed posture → write ONE summary sentence before looking at any chart.
2
Identify Regime: Run the 5-checkpoint scorecard. Assign one of four regimes. This becomes your strategic bias.
3
Verify Intermarket Signals: Is gold behaving as real yields predict? Is DXY confirming FX view? Divergence = step back.
4
Select Asset Class + Instrument: Match to regime. Only trade liquid instruments with tight bid-ask spreads.
5
Define Entry Precisely: Clean technical setup on two timeframes. Breakout with close above resistance or pullback to 50d EMA.
6
Define Risk Before Entry: Set stop loss at structurally valid level FIRST → then calculate position size. NEVER reverse this order.
7
Execute: Use limit orders. Record entry price, time, macro thesis, regime, stop level immediately in trade log.
8
Monitor Cross-Asset: Long gold? Track TIPS daily. Long crude? Watch EIA Wednesday 10:30 AM. Long equities? Watch VIX and HY credit spreads.
9
Adjust or Exit (3 triggers): ① Stop hit → exit immediately. ② Thesis changed → reassess. ③ Target reached → take partial profit.
10
Manage Event Risk: Before FOMC/CPI/NFP — reduce size by 50%. Pre-plan 3 scenarios (bull/bear/extreme).
11
Log Every Trade: Instrument, entry, stop, target, size, regime, thesis, exit, P&L, lesson. Review monthly.